Strike That

The screenwriters’ strike took a turn for the worse. Today’s WSJ article made the following, interesting point:

The impact of a prolonged strike could go far beyond this season. The broadcast networks, already grappling with a slow, long-term decline in viewers, depend heavily on new episodes of shows to draw audiences. Without new dramas and comedies, they will have to rely on reality shows, game shows and stunt specials, a glut of which could send audiences flocking to other forms of entertainment.

“There’s a huge transition in our business,” Steven Bochco, creator of the TV hits “L.A. Law” and “NYPD Blue,” said in a recent interview. “This may hasten the demise of the model that we’ve all worked under.”

This quote includes one of my favorite terms - ‘long-term decline.’ That term is only Network TV centric. Audience remains audience.

What are TV viewers going to do without new TV shows? Substitute. Fewer TV viewers, more DVD viewers, perhaps. Fewer Lost fans, more fans of Hero torrents, perhaps. Maybe more quality time on the web, reading blogs. Maybe more time at the iTunes store surfering for impulse video purchases.

Audience choice is vast. Substitution is easy. These qualities evolve slowly; in other words, nothing has changed, absent the absence of new TV shows.

Network TV is on the verge of its version of the Baseball strike. After compulsive self mutilation, the Commissioner of Network TV will work hard to rebuild audience. To do that, the ability to substitute in favor of Network TV will have to be easy and cheap.

What then will happen to locked-down, ad-based content viewers? My thought, too.